The BC NDP will form the province’s next government after a final tally of votes, but whether it is a majority or minority will depend on judicial recounts in two ridings.

At the conclusion of final counts on Monday more than a week after the election, the NDP was leading or elected in 47 seats to the Conservatives’ 44, while the Greens held two. In the legislature, 47 seats are needed to form a majority government.

NDP Leader David Eby met with the Lieutenant-Governor on Monday, and was asked to form the next government. Afterward, Mr. Eby released a statement calling his party’s third consecutive election victory “an incredible honour and a huge responsibility.” He said the close result sends a message.

Elections BC spent Monday conducting the final count, a routine process that infrequently garners attention because it rarely alters the results reported on election night. But with several ridings tight, the results of mail-in and absentee ballots made a difference, allowing the NDP to capture one seat from the Conservatives.

On election night, the Conservatives in Surrey Guildford held the riding with 103 more votes than the NDP, but that tally didn’t include mail-in and absentee ballots. By the end of Monday, the seat was in the NDP column. With final results in, incumbent Garry Begg won the riding with 27 votes over his Conservative opponent.

The NDP will form a government weakened from the one it enjoyed in the last legislature. The Conservatives – a party that barely registered with voters until a year ago – capitalized on voter anger about affordability, the housing crisis and public safety.

The results in the Kelowna Centre and Surrey-Guildford electoral districts are subject to automatic judicial recounts. A recount is overseen by a B.C. Supreme Court justice and must be requested by an Elections BC official within six days of the final count. The recount usually takes place within a week or two, depending on the availability of a judge. Under the Elections Act, a judicial recount is ordered if one candidate wins the riding by less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered. In Surrey Guildford, that’s about 38 votes.

In Kelowna Centre, another district with a razor-thin margin, the Conservatives’ lead over the NDP candidate was reduced to 38 votes Monday, down from 148 after election night. The threshold for a judicial recount in this district would be a margin of 51.

The governing NDP and upstart Conservatives went neck-and-neck for weeks, a trend in polls through to election-day votes. Even with the loss, it was a remarkable result for John Rustad’s Conservative Party, which won less than 2 per cent of the vote in the last election.

“We have made history in BC,” Mr. Rustad posted in a statement Monday night. “Just 18 months ago, the Conservative Party of BC was at 2% in the polls, had no members, no money, no team. But what we did have was grit, determination and a massive grassroots movement that would make the impossible happen.”

He said he accepted the election result and looked forward to leading the official opposition.

Judicial recounts have failed to overturn any riding results in the past four elections, only ever affecting the margin of victory for the winner named in the final count, according to official data.

In 2009, Vicki Huntington ran as an independent in Delta South and went home on election night with the understanding she had lost to BC Liberal candidate Wally Oppal by just two votes.

The final tally gave her a come-from-behind victory of 32 votes, she recalled in an interview Monday. Her win triggered a judicial recount, but, she says, it is highly unusual for these audits to reverse a lead in the final result in a riding because “by then there has been at least two counts before.”

In 2020, the difference between the top two candidates in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky was just 41 votes. A judicial recount widened the margin, confirming the election of BC Liberal candidate Jordan Sturdy. And in 2013, after a difference of just 35 votes after the final count in Coquitlam-Maillardville, a judicial recount confirmed the election of Selina Robinson, who would go on to become a cabinet minister.

As part of its initial count, Elections BC had tallied ballots from advance voting, final voting day and mail-in ballots received before the close of advance voting. This past weekend, it tallied 66,074 ballots as part of its final count: mail-in ballots received after the close of advance voting, absentee and special ballots.

The electoral districts of Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre were subject to automatic recounts because each had fewer than 100 votes between the top two candidates after election night. After the recounts and late-counted ballots over the weekend and on Monday, the NDP increased its lead over the Conservative candidate to 141 in Juan de Fuca-Malahat, while the party increased its lead in Surrey City Centre to beat the Conservatives by 236 votes.

Mr. Eby, who will hold a media availability Tuesday, continues to do government transition work, including assembling a cabinet and speaking to MLAs on both sides of the House to bolster the NDP’s benches.

“With renewed determination, we will build on the progress we’ve made to reduce daily costs like car insurance and childcare, hire thousands of health care workers and get you a family doctor, deliver homes you can afford, and make sure our economy works for everyone – not just those at the top,” Mr. Eby’s statement read. “There is so much more work to do to lighten the load for people.”

In a statement released Monday, Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau, who lost her own seat, called for inter-party collaboration.

“This outcome follows a very negative, polarizing election,” the statement read. “It’s clear that British Columbians are demanding better outcomes from their government, and our focus is on ensuring effective services and a higher quality of life for people.”

Aisha Estey, president of the Conservative Party of BC, posted on social media Sunday evening that she had spent the previous two days in a warehouse watching the transcription and counting of mail-in ballots.

“Elections BC staff have been working tirelessly and doing their best within the confines of the legislation that governs their work,” she wrote on X. “Would we have liked mail-in ballots to be counted closer to E-day? Sure. But I saw nothing that caused me concern.”

Andrea Woo and Mike Hager
The Globe and Mail, October 28, 2024