Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford has won a third straight majority government after a campaign in which he positioned himself as the best leader to take on U.S. President Donald Trump and push back on the American threat of tariffs.

The New Democrats maintained their status as the Official Opposition party with 27 seats, while the Liberals regained official party status. As of midnight, the Progressive Conservatives had 43 per cent of the popular vote, with the Liberals at 30 per cent and the New Democrats at 19 per cent.

Doug Ford’s snap election gamble pays off

Mr. Ford secured a historic third majority government, with election night results showing the PCs expanding their caucus to 80 seats, from 79. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Ford repeatedly said he needed a strong mandate from Ontarians to face U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Throughout the campaign, the NDP and Liberals tried to draw attention to significant problems in the Ontario health care system, and claimed Mr. Ford had called the snap election because he was trying to get ahead of the RCMP investigation into his government’s aborted decision to open up the protected Greenbelt lands for development. He was also accused of inappropriately blurring the lines between campaigning party leader and Premier, including with trips to Washington that were dismissed by his opponents as photo ops.

NDP wins the battle for second

With the Conservatives leading in the polls throughout the campaign, political observers were focused on who would come in second. Marit Stiles’s New Democrats secured their status as the Official Opposition party with 27 seats. Leading up to election day, polls showed the Liberals in second place. The NDP has been the Official Opposition since 2018, initially under Andrea Horwath, who resigned after the 2022 election. Ms. Stiles was first elected in the Toronto riding of Davenport in 2018.

Bonnie Crombie loses race, but Liberals pick up seats

The Liberals needed 12 seats to regain official party status. Early results show they won 14. The party lost the designation in 2018 when Mr. Ford defeated then-premier Kathleen Wynne and has been in third-party status ever since. Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost her own race in the riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville to Progressive Conservative Silvia Gualtieri by more than 1,000 votes. But in an election-night speech, Ms. Crombie said she was staying on as a leader. “People counted us out. They said the Ontario Liberal Party was dead. Tonight, you proved them wrong,” said Ms. Crombie. Ms. Gualtieri is the mother-in-law of Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, who was also the former Ontario PC leader. Mississauga ridings tend to flip between the PCs and Liberals.

Flipped seats

The Liberals flipped PC seats in Ajax, Etobicoke Lakeshore and Nepean, which was held for 26 years by the Progressive Conservatives. The PCs gained Hamilton Mountain from the NDP, a part of a Tory push to win the support of blue-collar workers and tradespeople. The PCs also flipped Algoma-Manitoulin from the NDP. Meanwhile, the Liberals won Toronto St. Paul’s, which was held by the NDP, and the NDP held on to Windsor West, which the Tories had been fighting to win.

Low voter turnout

Voter turnout was about 45 per cent as of midnight Thursday, according to Elections Ontario, which is about the same as the historic low turnout in the 2022 election. Political observers expected low numbers, citing the snowy weather and the early election call.

Samantha Edwards
The Globe and Mail, February 28, 2025