Donald Trump’s repeated calls to claim Canada are nothing more than empty threats aimed at winning trade concessions, experts in U.S. relations and defence studies say, as Ontario’s Premier called the idea “ridiculous and a waste of time.”

Speaking at a press conference this week, the president-elect said he’d use “economic force” to annex Canada, arguing that the United States doesn’t need to buy Canadian lumber, dairy or automobiles.

Doug Ford, who has emerged as one of Canada’s most vocal opponents to Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, said Wednesday that the two countries should instead be co-operating in the face of the threat China poses to North American prosperity.

“Together, let’s stop wasting time on ridiculous ideas about merging, and instead focus on our efforts on restoring the pride of ‘made in Canada’ and ‘made in the USA,’ ” Mr. Ford told reporters at the Darlington nuclear plant east of Toronto.

Experts say that Mr. Trump’s talk of annexation can be chalked up to bluster as he seeks concessions in the buildup to next year’s review of the U.S., Canada and Mexico trilateral trade agreement.

And while Mr. Trump’s musings have attracted the attention of policy makers and media across North America, his recent threats of using economic force to annex Canada would first run into a wall of politics within his own party.

Bringing Canada and its population of 41 million into the U.S. would mean redistributing 54 seats in the House of Representatives to predominantly left-leaning voters, according to Aaron Ettinger, an expert on international relations and U.S. foreign policy at Carleton University. The newly created state’s two seats in the Senate would also likely go to the Democrats’ new Canadian members.

And folding Canada into the country would introduce policy problems that many Americans might not have considered, Prof. Ettinger said. “Multiculturalism, bilingualism, Indigenous reconciliation, different visions of federalism. It would shift the ‘American’ political culture to the left by locking in the electoral power of Democratic supporters.”

These changes would all but assure a Democratic White House far beyond Mr. Trump’s second term – all but assuring Canada will remain sovereign.

“His approach has always been to use America’s economic size as leverage over smaller partners to get concessions,” Prof. Ettinger said. “A trade war might turn Canada into an economic vassal, but vassalage is different from losing our sovereignty.”

Even if Mr. Trump were to overcome a war with his own party, Canada would have to amend its Constitution to “basically end our existence,” said Adam Chapnick, a professor of defence studies at the Royal Military College of Canada. That would require winning votes in Canada’s House of Commons and the Senate, and the willingness of every province and territory to play along.

And when it comes to Indigenous nations in particular, “there would be lawsuits that would take years, if not decades, to settle,” said Prof. Chapnick, who teaches courses in Canadian foreign policy and strategic decision-making at the federal level.

In an appearance on Fox News this week, Mr. Ford referred to the president-elect as “a real estate tycoon” who has “made billions.” But as for Canada: “That property’s not for sale.”

Prof. Ettinger put it even more bluntly: “In the end, all of this is just trash talk.”

“Remember when Trump also said that North Korea would ‘be met with fire and fury’ like the world has never seen? Well, all that amounted to a handshake photo op in the DMZ and a clutch of love letters. It’s only notable now because we’re in the crosshairs.”

Chris Wilson-Smith
The Globe and Mail, January 8, 2025